The following is the Drake equation, (calculates potential for detectable non-solar civilizations):
'N = RfpneflfifcL
In this equation, N is the number of detectable civilizations in our galaxy. The other variables are described below:
•R is the rate of star formation in the galaxy
•fp is the fraction of stars that form planets
•ne is the number of planets hospitable to life (i.e., Earth-like planets)
•fl is the fraction of these planets on which life actually emerges
•fi is the fraction of these planets on which intelligent life arises
•fc is the fraction of these planets with intelligent beings capable of interstellar communication
•L is the length of time such a civilization remains detectable
The only variable known with any degree of certainty is the rate of stellar formation, R. In the Milky Way, a typical spiral galaxy, new stars form at a rate of roughly four per year. The variable astronomers feel most uncertain about is L, the length of time a civilization remains detectable. A variety of estimates have been used for L, ranging from 10 years to 10 million years.
If we take our solar system as representative, then we might argue that ne equals 1/4 or 0.25. Similar guesses have been made about the other variables and, interestingly, they all end up having very similar values, usually in a range between 0.1 and 1.0. So, a typical calculation might look like this:
N = 4 x 0.5 x 0.25 x 0.2 x 0.2 x 0.2 x 3,000,000
... which gives us a value of 12,000 civilizations in our galaxy.'